The Australian, November 16, 1998

Phnom Penh -- Close to 18 months after last year's bloody coup, Cambodia is ready to tackle its myriad social and economic problems through a legitimate government and the rule of law.

Strongman Hun Sen and opposition leader Prince Norodom Ranariddh agreed last Friday to launch a new coalition, ending more than three months of deadlock over the outcome of a disputed July election narrowly won by Mr Hun Sen.

But along with the hope that Cambodia has turned the corner comes an unease that last week's political breakthrough may be short-lived and replaced with a new round of instability.

That unease is born of a sense of deja vu. The players in the new coalition are the same as those who were unable to reconcile the differences that shattered their partnership in July last year.

Mr Hun Sen and Prince Ranariddh are both Cambodians but they come from different worlds: Mr Hun Sen from the tough peasant culture of Cambodia's countryside; Prince Ranariddh from the pampered, foreign-educated elite.

Perhaps the only thing they have in common is an understanding of power as defined by Cambodia's political culture ­ power as an absolute, as the right to privilege and an excuse for indifference to the responsibilities of leadership.

And even though the two men now seem committed to a coalition, that union may soon be revealed as a mirage.

Although the prince appears to have abandoned his ally, Sam Rainsy, for the sake of last week's negotiations, the two are united in their hatred of Mr Hun Sen.

And their combined numbers in the National Assembly ­ which requires a quorum of 70 per cent ­ are enough to frustrate him should he not play their game.

The joint political platform of the prince and Mr Rainsy demands a vigorous attack on corruption, poverty and organised crime. But Mr Hun Sen faces an enormous task in reining in his supporters, many of whom have grown rich and powerful through his benevolence.

A potential flashpoint is the commune elections planned for next year, as it was a dispute over the division of power at local level in early 1996 that sounded the beginning of the end of the last coalition.

The dynamics of today's political union and the one it replaced are frighteningly similar, and there are those who believe that true stability will come only with a new generation of leaders.